SSS will be held in Spring 2021.

The Importance to Society: Decisions and Planning Need Science
  • When is science relevant
  • Belief in a common, shared reality
Science’s View of Reality
  • Our senses and instrumentation
  • Systematic and Statistical Uncertainty and ”Scientific Optimism”
Causal Reasoning: Why Statistics?
  • Causal Reasoning 1: Correlation and Causation, “variables” and “interventions”, reliability (reproducibility) and validity
  • Finding signal in noise
  • Seeing patterns in random noise
  • False positives/negatives
Calculus of Tentative Propositions
  • Assigning Credence levels to propositions and using them
  • Calibration of Credence levels
Sanity Checks
  • Orders of understanding
  • Fermi problems
“Cold” Biases
  • Heuristics
  • Biases
  • Heuristics vs. Biases
“Hot” Biases and Other Topics
  • Mismeasure of man; science and ethics
  • Pathological science and Pseudoscience
Synthesis of Topics
  • Cross Examination of an Expert Witness
  • Causal Reasoning 2: Singular and General Causation, Direct and Indirect Causation
Recognizing Biases and “Good Practice”
  • Confirmatory biases in the search for evidence
  • Blind Analysis
Group Thinking
  • Wisdom of Crowds vs. Herd Thinking
  • Ways that groups fall short of their optimal ability and ways to do better
  • Integrating Fact and Value
Can we do Better Together?
  • Deliberative Polling
  • Scenario Planning